Analysis of Clemson's Lineup

The Gamecocks play Clemson tonight in the College World Series (CWS).

Clemson is 2-0 in the CWS while the Gamecocks are 2-1. Clemson and the Gamecocks are the last teams left in their half of the CWS bracket. The first team that loses two games will be sent home while the other will advance to face either UCLA or TCU for the college baseball 2010 championship. Clemson can lose tonight and stay alive, but the Gamecocks will be eliminated if they lose.

Both of the Gamecock ace pitchers, Blake Cooper and Sam Dyson, have pitched and are unavailable for the game tonight against Clemson. Coach Tanner indicated that Steven Neff or Michael Roth may start, but he admitted he really has not yet decided that issue. LINK

As is shown on the chart below, Clemson has a lineup heavily populated by left handed hitters.



In baseball, batters facing a pitcher who delivers the pitch from the same side of the plate as the batter have a statistical advantage. Most baseball pitchers are right handed. Thus, left-handed batters have a statistical advantage against right handed pitchers. The reason has to do with the ease with which a batter can pick up a pitched ball out of a pitchers hand, and also breaking balls. Curves tend to break away when delivered by pitchers from the same side of the plate, and curves and sliders are harder to read.

The only power hitter in Clemson's lineup that bats right handed is Kyle Parker. Other than Parker, none of the other right handed hitters--the few of them that there are--have hit more than 7 homeruns. Therefore, you can bet that the Gamecocks will send out a left handed pitcher to start. It would be interesting to know Clemson's overall record against left handed starters.

Tanner mentioned two lefties, Steven Neff and Michael Roth, when he was speculating about the starter (see link).

Neff is an intersting choice because he has only started one game all year, and only pitched 15.1 innings. He has been a reliever most of the season, and has a solid 4.11 ERA.

Roth has a sparkling 1.37 ERA over 26.1 innings, but he has yet to start a game.

Another potential left-handed starter is Nolan Belcher. Belcher has started 6 games and has a solid 2.43 ERA over 29.2 innings. However, unlike Roth's innings, most of Belcher's stats have been against nonconference opponents.

An additional collateral benefit of pitching a lefty is that it is harder to steal bases. Left handed pitchers face first base before delivery to homeplate, and it is hard for a baserunner to get a good jump toward second on a steal attempt. This is important too because Clemson loves to run.