Graphs In Pack's Favor
This is my second reality check post as we approach the college football season. Read my first post here.
I am writing these reality check posts to temper the tendency of Gamecock readers to become over-enthusiastic during the pre-season. That tendency just sets us up for disappointment.
Your writer is an optimist. I would love nothing better than to see the 2009 Gamecocks win 10 or 11 games, and I believe it might be possible.
This second reality-check post pits my optimism against two graphs that paint a stark reality of the teams' 2008 trends.
Let me say first, I understand that this is a new year, a completely new team, and a new attitude. Like many, this Gamecock fan loves the work of new strength coach Craig Fitzgerald. I am emboldened by reports about the high level of enthusiasm and leadership with this 2009 Gamecock team. Those reports make me feel really good.
On the other hand, I just watched most of the SEC coaches speaking at the Media Days, and it seems that all of the other SEC teams feel about the same way as we do. I figure that NC State, led by Head Coach, Tom O'Brien, who brings a Marine's attitude toward off season work, will have a pretty intense off-season regimen. We simply have no way of knowing whose off-season effort is better until the teams meet on the field.
One thing that does not change, however, are the historical facts. Below is a table that charts the teams' 2008 wins and losses over the course of the season. The two teams started the 2008 season in opposite directions, and they pretty much ended up the same way.

This second chart is like the first except it charts the point-spreads of the two teams through the 2008 season. Similar to the first chart, the Gamecocks started strong, and finished weakly. On the other hand, the 2008 Wolfpack team performed in the opposite fashion.

Looking at the data presented here, one has to acknowledge that the 2008 trends seem to favor the Wolfpack.
Reality check.
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